5 Things to Know Before You Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop

by Garrett Thill

● October 29, 2026 · Treasure Valley Real Estate

Before you put your plans on hold, here’s what the data says, including when waiting actually makes sense.

More people are googling “when will mortgage rates go down” than at any time this past year. If you’ve been wondering the same thing, you’re in good company.

Here in the Treasure Valley, we hear it every week from buyers and sellers in Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Eagle, Star and Kuna. Waiting can be the right call. But before you put your plans on hold, it helps to know what you’re actually waiting for, and what waiting could change.

Ask yourself three things: when rates might come down, what a drop would really change, and what you can do right now. We’ll also cover when waiting is the right call.

This week

The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, October 28, as expected they decided to hold rates steady. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, so the decision won’t change your rate overnight. It’s one more reason to plan around the numbers in front of you, not the headlines.

Here are five things to know before you wait.

The rates

1. Lower rates may be a long wait

“Rates have to come down eventually, right?”

Eventually, maybe. Just not soon, according to the latest forecasts.

In its October 2026 housing forecast, Fannie Mae projects the 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for the rest of 2026 and 7.5% through every quarter of 2027.

Forecasts aren’t promises. Rates can move quickly in either direction, which is exactly why planning around a hoped-for rate is risky.

Rates have also moved fast. According to Realtor.com, they rose from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on October 8. For a buyer with a $2,000 monthly budget, that’s more than $22,000 less home.

30-year fixed rate · actual and forecast

The forecast is flat

Late Aug

6.66%

Oct 8

7.40%

Q4 ’26

7.4%

Q1 ’27

7.5%

Q2 ’27

7.5%

Q3 ’27

7.5%

Q4 ’27

7.5%

Black = actual, teal = forecast. Bars start at 6%. Sources: Realtor.com (actual); Fannie Mae October 2026 forecast (projected).

What would a lower rate actually save you?

Example: a $400,000 loan, today’s 7.4% vs. a hoped-for 6.5%

At today’s 7.4%

$2,770/mo

At 6.5%

$2,528/mo

$241 less per month, about $2,895 a year

Illustration only. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan. Excludes taxes, insurance and fees.

Takeaway

If you plan to move in the next year, plan around today’s rates.

Waiting can still make sense if your timing is flexible and today’s payment doesn’t fit your budget.

2. You’re not waiting alone, and that’s the catch

“Can’t I just jump in when rates drop?”

You can. So can everyone else who’s waiting.

Google searches for “when will mortgage rates go down” just hit their highest level of the past year. And NAR reported that pending home sales in September fell to the lowest level in its records, which go back to 2001.

That’s a lot of people on the sidelines. When rates do drop, many of them will come back at the same time, and buyers will be competing with each other again. In a market like the Treasure Valley, where people keep moving in, that rush can show up fast.

To be fair, lower rates would also bring more sellers back, so you’d have more homes to choose from. The tradeoff: more choice, but more competition for the best ones.

2001

Pending home sales hit their lowest level since NAR records began in 2001.

Takeaway

Fewer buyers means more room to negotiate. Waiting for lower rates can mean trading a quiet market for a crowded one.

Your home

3. Lower rates won’t raise your home’s value much

“If I wait for rates to drop, my home will be worth more.”

A little more, maybe. Probably not as much as you’re hoping.

Researchers at the New York Fed found that home values are far less sensitive to mortgage rates than standard economic models predict. Their estimate: a 1-point drop in rates raises home prices by about 2% at most.

Estimates vary, and some research finds a bigger effect over many years, especially where homes are scarce. But most studies agree the effect is smaller and slower than people expect.

It also happens slowly. An FHFA study found that the effect on prices in the first few months is close to zero.

What could a rate drop add to your home’s value?

Example: a $450,000 Treasure Valley home and a 1-point rate drop

First few months

About $0

Over time, at most (about 2%)

Up to $9,000

Illustration only. Upper-end estimate based on New York Fed research. Your local market may differ.

Takeaway

If you’re waiting to sell because you expect lower rates to raise your price, the gain is usually small and slow. The bigger change lower rates bring is more buyers. They also bring more sellers, so you’d be competing with them too.

The effect can be larger where homes are scarce and smaller where there’s plenty of new construction, which describes a lot of Meridian, Nampa, Kuna and Star. Your local market matters more than the national average.

Your options

4. Buyers have more power right now than they’ve had in years

While many buyers wait, the ones still looking are in a strong position.

According to Redfin, home sellers nationally now outnumber buyers by 63%, the biggest gap since the housing crash that followed the Great Recession. And nationally, 22% of sellers with homes on the market have cut their asking price, the highest share in Redfin’s records.

Buyers vs. sellers · national

For every 100 buyers, about 163 sellers

Buyers

100

Sellers

163

Source: Redfin, national, October 2026

“But won’t prices drop if I wait?”

Maybe. But nobody can promise prices will fall where you’re buying, or tell you when. Prices move neighborhood by neighborhood, not all at once. A home in the Boise Bench can behave very differently from new construction in south Nampa.

If you want a lower price, negotiating for one now is often more reliable than waiting for the whole market to fall. These three local numbers show how much room you have:

1. Days on market: how long homes like the one you want sit before they sell.

2. Price cuts: how many nearby listings have already lowered their price.

3. Sale-to-list: how close homes are selling to their asking price.

Any Idaho Life agent can pull all three for the Treasure Valley neighborhoods you’re watching.

Takeaway

Whether you’re buying your first home or your next luxury home, there’s more room to negotiate on price and terms than there was a year ago.

Your market may be different. Ask how homes like the one you want are actually selling nearby.

5. You can get a lower rate without waiting for one

Here’s the part most people don’t know: you can ask the seller to pay to lower your rate.

It’s called a rate buydown. The seller pays money upfront to your lender, and in return you get a lower interest rate. Some buydowns last for the life of the loan. Others lower the rate for the first year or two.

Seller

pays upfront →

Lender

lowers your rate →

You

It’s becoming common. Redfin reported that sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of sales from June through August, the highest share for that period since 2020. Concessions include money toward closing costs, repairs, or rate buydowns.

There are limits. On a conventional loan, sellers can contribute 3% to 9% of the price, depending on your down payment. FHA loans allow up to 6%, and VA loans generally cap concessions at 4%. A buydown counts toward that limit, along with any help with closing costs.

With a temporary buydown, you still have to qualify at the full rate. And in competitive pockets of the valley, asking for help can make your offer less attractive. Your agent can tell you what’s realistic where you’re buying.

44.7%

of sales had seller concessions, June through August.

Price cut or rate buydown?

Example: a $450,000 home, 20% down, and a $15,000 seller credit

Option A: $15,000 price cut
Price $435,000 · loan $348,000 at 7.4%

$2,409/mo

Option B: $15,000 rate buydown
Price $450,000 · loan $360,000 at 6.9%

$2,371/mo

The rate buydown is lower by $39 a month in this example. That’s about $462 a year.

Example only. Ask a lender for real pricing. Buydown pricing, limits on seller contributions, and loan rules vary by lender and loan type.

Takeaway

Instead of waiting for a lower rate, you may be able to negotiate for one. When you find a home you like, compare the full offer, not just the price.

Ask your lender to price out a buydown before you make an offer. It doesn’t fit every deal, and the same credit used another way can sometimes go further.

When waiting makes sense

Waiting can be the right decision if:

— Today’s payment doesn’t fit your budget, even with help from the seller.

— Your job, family, or timing is uncertain.

— You have a low rate and no real reason to move.

— You’re in a market where prices are clearly falling and you can wait comfortably.

The waiting math

Example: a $450,000 home today vs. waiting 12 months for 6.5%, with prices up 3% and $2,200/mo rent while you wait

Buy now at 7.4%

$2,493/mo

Buy later at 6.5%

$2,344/mo

Monthly difference

$149 less if you wait

Rent paid while waiting

$26,400

On these numbers, waiting wins on the monthly payment: about $149 less per month. But you’d also pay $26,400 in rent while you wait, which would take about 178 months of the lower payment to make back.

Example only. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down. Excludes taxes, insurance and fees. Rates and prices may not move the way you expect.

Know your options before you decide

You don’t have to guess. A useful look at your situation should show:

1. What your monthly payment would be at today’s rates.

2. What a lower rate would actually save you, month by month.

3. How homes like the one you want (or the one you own) are selling near you.

4. What you could negotiate for right now, including a rate buydown.

Talk through your options with Idaho Life

Buying or selling anywhere in the Treasure Valley, from Boise and Eagle to Meridian, Nampa, Kuna and Star. No pressure to move. Just a clear look at your numbers.

Get my numbers →

Sources

Figures as of October 21, 2026. Examples are illustrations, not loan quotes. Talk with a licensed lender for rates and terms.